Just 12 months ago, on 28th October 2023, Cardiff City defeated rivals Bristol City in a 2-0 home win, moving up to 6th in the Championship table and making a statement with a six-game unbeaten streak at home and a 50%-win rate in the league.

Nearly a year later, on 22nd September 2024, Cardiff City sit at the bottom of the Championship, winless, with only 1 point out of a possible 18, marking their worst season start in 35 years. They have conceded 13 goals and scored just 1, leading to the dismissal of manager Erol Bulut. From such a promising beginning to last season’s campaign, what ultimately led to the downfall of Cardiff and Erol Bulut?

The beginning of the 23/24 campaign got off to a rough start. Cardiff managed an encouraging point away at Leeds on the opening day, but this was quickly followed by a disappointing 2-1 home loss to a poor QPR side. Cardiff then went on to win only one of their first five games – a victory secured in the 90+8 minute with a penalty by Ryan Wintle, giving them their first win of the season against Sheffield Wednesday.

This win appeared to lift the team’s spirits, and in their next match, Cardiff took a 2-0 lead by the 52nd minute away against newly promoted Ipswich. However, just before the hour mark, Ipswich pulled one back and went on to claim a 3-2 victory, leaving Cardiff to settle at 19th in the table. This slow start felt like a troubling repeat of previous seasons, where early struggles hindered their progress in the league.

Erol Bulut won the hearts of Cardiff fans with a commanding 2-0 victory in the South Wales derby, marking Cardiff’s first home win over Swansea since the 2013/14 Premier League season. This success sparked a turnaround in form, as the Bluebirds went on to win their next three games, ending September with four wins from five matches and securing three clean sheets along the way. By month’s end, Cardiff had climbed to 6th in the league, with fans singing Erol Bulut’s praises and a promising season beginning to unfold.

By early December, following a 1-0 home win over Millwall, Cardiff had established themselves as genuine play-off contenders, sitting just outside the play-off spots in 7th place. Their home form played a vital role in this success, ranking them as the 8th best team at home after the Millwall win. From a shaky start, Cardiff’s fortunes seemed to have truly turned around.

The Bluebirds strengthened significantly from a Championship perspective in the January transfer window, spending £2 million on five-time Scottish international David Turnbull and bringing in Nat Phillips and Josh Wilson-Esbrand from Liverpool and Manchester City, respectively. However, they also saw an outgoing: Ike Ugbo, who had his loan terminated due to limited game time, despite being Cardiff’s joint top scorer in the league with 4 goals. Cardiff didn’t replace Ugbo’s position until deadline day, signing former Bristol City striker Famara Diédhiou, who had only scored 1 goal in all competitions since the start of the 22/23 season.

This marked the beginning of Cardiff's mid-season struggles. Between 29th December and 20th February, Cardiff managed only 7 points out of a possible 27, with 2 wins and 6 losses. They conceded 17 goals across 9 matches while scoring only 5; notably, 4 of those goals came from defenders, highlighting Cardiff’s lack of attacking threat. The football became increasingly predictable, and set pieces were Cardiff’s primary source of strength. Cardiff also faced an embarrassing FA Cup exit, losing 4-0 to fellow Championship side Sheffield Wednesday, with two penalty misses in the opening 7 minutes sealing their fate and preventing a Fourth-Round appearance for the second consecutive season.

It seemed Cardiff had rediscovered their September/October form by late February going into March, with four consecutive wins. This streak began with a home victory over relegation-battling Stoke, followed by a double over Severnside rivals Bristol City, thanks to a decisive goal from Perry Ng. Cardiff then completed another double, this time over Huddersfield, who would eventually be relegated. Just three days later, Cardiff hosted eventual runners-up Ipswich, clinching a thrilling 2-1 victory with a 95th-minute equaliser and a 100th-minute winner. Though these wins were hard-fought, in a results-driven league like the Championship, this revival brought Cardiff fans back on Bulut’s side, as the team edged closer to the play-off race with nine games remaining and a manageable five-point gap.

However, the play-off dream would not materialise. A poor showing against Swansea in the South Wales Derby and a home loss to mid-table Sunderland brought Cardiff fans back to reality. With only 9 points from the final 27, the season ended on a disappointing note with a 5-2 defeat to already-relegated Rotherham, leaving the Bluebirds to finish the campaign in 12th place.

Most Cardiff fans were pleased with the season’s finish, especially after recent years spent battling relegation. Under Bulut, the team seemed to find a measure of stability, ending the season 10th in the away form table, proving they no longer had to rely solely on home performances to climb the league. Bulut appeared to have steadied a sinking ship, aided by successful signings. Dimitrios Goutas and Manolis Siopis, both brought in on free transfers, quickly became fan favourites. The club also welcomed back Aaron Ramsey, who started the season well but struggled with injuries that limited his game time.

However, a segment of the fan base remained unconvinced by Bulut. The style of football was often uninspiring, and goals from key attacking players were scarce. Cardiff also recorded 22 losses this season—surpassed by only two other teams—a statistic that raised concerns among supporters and possibly the board. With Bulut’s one-year contract nearing its end, it was uncertain whether he would secure the extension he desired.

Despite achieving their highest finish since the 2020/21 season, Cardiff lacked a clear style of play. They ranked in the lower half for three key team sequence styles: direct attacks, build-up attacks, and open-play sequences involving 10+ passes. Given these low rankings, it’s no surprise that some fans were disappointed with how Bulut set up his teams.

The Bluebirds were 21st in total high turnovers, ranked the same for high turnovers resulting in a shot, and were joint last with Millwall for turnovers leading to a goal. This highlighted Cardiff’s lack of pressing when out of possession and a lack of energy and intent when the opposition had the ball in their own third.

Though Cardiff ranked 9th for shots conceded, showing a degree of defensive capability, they ranked 22nd for expected goals (xG) conceded at 51.38, and were 22nd in goals conceded from open play, with only relegated Rotherham and Huddersfield faring worse. Defence was an issue, but Cardiff’s attacking threat was an even greater concern. They finished the season with 29.17 xG from open play—4th lowest in the division—and scored the fewest open-play goals, with just 25. Fortunately for Bulut and Cardiff, they led the Championship in set-piece goals, scoring a remarkable 21, making them the only team in the division to score over 20 from set pieces.

After some deliberation, Erol Bulut finally got his wish for a contract extension, signing a two-year deal until the end of the 25/26 season. At times, it seemed unlikely, as the Cardiff board initially only wanted to offer a one-year extension, but Bulut held out for a two-year contract, which he ultimately secured.

Cardiff appeared to have recruited well during the summer window, bringing in strong talent on free transfers. Chris Willock arrived with ample Championship experience after four years at QPR. Former Premier League players Calum Chambers and Anwar El Ghazi also joined, bringing experience and depth. The club spent £2 million to sign young talents Alex Robertson and Will Fish, adding energy and promise to the squad. Additionally, with the sale of McGuinness to Luton Town for a reported £9.5 million—Cardiff’s highest sale since Bobby Reid in 2019/20—the club was able to invest £3.5 million in Norwegian defender Jesper Daland on a four-year contract. These additions bolstered Cardiff’s core, and fans entered the season with renewed optimism.

However, the poor end to last season seemed to spill over into the new campaign, starting with a disappointing home loss to Sunderland and a 5-0 defeat away to Scott Parker’s Burnley. Although Cardiff came from behind in the South Wales derby to secure their first point, this would be the only Championship point and goal Cardiff scored under Bulut. They later lost 5-3 in an EFL Cup thriller against newly promoted Southampton, followed by three consecutive league losses to Middlesbrough, Derby, and Leeds, leading to the end of Bulut’s tenure at Cardiff City.

In a season that was expected to build on their 12th-place finish, with a promising transfer window to match, ending in this way was a disaster for the club though it was perhaps foreseeable. Many fans felt it shouldn’t have ended this way, but with results and performances failing to benefit the club, the decision to sack Bulut was ultimately justified.